Rocket warns 2027 mortgage market will be worse than expected

• Key Insight: Uncover how Rocket is bracing for a mortgage market downturn which defies industry forecasts. 
• Expert Quote: “Today, based on our estimates, the same data points to a fourth-quarter market well below what industry forecasts indicate.” — Brian Brown, President and CFO 

Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review. 

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Rocket marked four financial quarters of owning Mr. Cooper with its highest profit margins in five years, at a time when mortgage rates reached their highest levels since 2003.

The quarter results were very good, both in terms of profit and production.

But going forward, the mortgage environment will be tough, not just in the fourth quarter, but also throughout 2027, Rocket executives said on the earnings call.

They were even more bearish than industry forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae.

The fourth quarter normally is a low one production-wise for the industry and this one is being impacted at a time when mortgage rates are at levels not seen in two decades, said Brian Brown, Rocket Cos. president and chief financial officer.

What the real time data is revealing about the fourth quarter

“Last quarter, we told you our real-time data pointed to a third-quarter mortgage market that would be smaller than Q2, something the industry had not seen since 2022. That is exactly how the third quarter played out,” Brown said. “Today, based on our estimates, the same data points to a fourth-quarter market well below what industry forecasts indicate.”

Rocket expects the overall refinance market to decline by almost half from the third quarter, which will push volume to “multi-decade lows,” Brown warned.

This guidance was weaker than BTIG’s estimate, which analyst Douglas Harter attributed to Rocket’s “more conservative outlook for market size.”

When it comes to 2027, CEO Varun Krishna did not mince words.

“The reality is this may be the toughest mortgage market in more than 30 years, but let me just tell you, I like tough markets because when you’re playing in this nosebleed territory, no one can really hide,” he said in response to an analyst’s question.

“We’ve been calling for a smaller market than the industry forecast, and that’s pretty much exactly what we’ve seen quarter after quarter after quarter,” Krishna said. “When you look at 2027, you know the forecasts are below $2 trillion; we think it could actually be even smaller still.”

In this environment, the executives pointed out that Rocket gained market share in both purchase and refinance.

What was Rocket’s third quarter volume?

Inclusive of the correspondent channel, Rocket produced $43.6 billion at a 254 basis point gain on sale margin. This compared with $49.1 billion at a 248 basis point margin. The volume was 3% lower than Harter’s estimate. The miss was from the third party channels, as wholesale came in 5% under and correspondent 8% below BTIG.

Rocket did not acquire Mr. Cooper until Oct. 1 of last year. It closed the Redfin transaction at the start of the third quarter of 2025.

For the third quarter a year ago, Rocket did $32.4 billion at a 280 basis point margin.

In the wholesale channel, “over 200 brokers have now activated with Rocket, that represents almost $12 billion in potential annualized volume,” Krishna said. “So, four consecutive quarters of expanding margins, taking share and better economics. That’s kind of the combination that we’re solving for.”

In the current period, Brown said per channel margins are running similar to the third quarter.

The company ended the quarter with a $2 trillion mortgage servicing portfolio. Rocket’s MSR sales during the period totaled $23 billion, generating $379 million of cash proceeds. Furthermore, management noted it retained subservicing and recapture rights on nearly 70% of the MSRs sold.

Rocket reports a GAAP profit

The third quarter was the second consecutive quarter of GAAP profitability for Rocket, with net income of $709 million. This compared with net income of $34 million in the second quarter, and a loss of $124 million one year ago.

When asked about competition, Krishna responded “I think the reality is the market is literally testing every single lender, and that’s like a good news, bad news story. I think the good news is if you have a strong business model, guess what? It’s going to shine through. But the bad news is if you have a flaw in your business model, it’s going to get exposed.”

Earlier Brown noted in the past lenders have used pricing as a lever to drive volume in times of scarce originations. He is not seeing as much of it right now.

On the call, they addressed the recapture opportunities, noting the home equity lending business is benefitting. Rocket also got 20% of its quarter’s purchase volume from Redfin’s agreement with Compass announced earlier this year.

Source: www.nationalmortgagenews.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.